FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven
18+Eredivisie · Sun 20 Sept, 12:30
Data: excellent
- FC Twente win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- PSV Eindhoven win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Twente to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Twente strength rating 1647 v PSV Eindhoven 1676
- FC Twente home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- PSV Eindhoven away form: 3W 0D 0L, 11 scored / 3 conceded
- FC Twente unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 40%, goals 40%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 4.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.