Ballymena United v Portadown
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Ballymena United win
- 60%
- Draw
- 19%
- Portadown win
- 21%
FootyGrounds prediction
Ballymena United to win
Model probability 60%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Ballymena United strength rating 1613 v Portadown 1573
- Portadown away form: 0W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Ballymena United -1 v Portadown -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 61%, recent form 73%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model73%
Component disagreement: 18.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 60%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.