Stoke City v Sheffield United
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Stoke City win
- 47%
- Draw
- 23%
- Sheffield United win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stoke City to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stoke City strength rating 1562 v Sheffield United 1554
- Stoke City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Sheffield United away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stoke City 0 v Sheffield United -1
- Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 46%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model46%
Component disagreement: 1.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.