Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 16:45
Data: excellent
- Kilmarnock win
- 28%
- Draw
- 24%
- Heart of Midlothian win
- 47%
FootyGrounds prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Heart of Midlothian strength rating 1642 v Kilmarnock 1584
- Heart of Midlothian away record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Kilmarnock home form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Heart of Midlothian +6 v Kilmarnock -9
- Heart of Midlothian have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 36%, goals 56%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 21.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.