Cheltenham Town v Chesterfield
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Cheltenham Town win
- 49%
- Draw
- 22%
- Chesterfield win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cheltenham Town to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cheltenham Town strength rating 1456 v Chesterfield 1442
- Cheltenham Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Chesterfield away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Cheltenham Town +3 v Chesterfield 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 49%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Chesterfield are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 4.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.