Bradford City v Barnsley
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Bradford City win
- 53%
- Draw
- 22%
- Barnsley win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bradford City to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score58 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bradford City strength rating 1511 v Barnsley 1483
- Bradford City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Barnsley away form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bradford City +2 v Barnsley -5
- Bradford City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 51%, goals 54%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 2.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 14/09/2026, 18:20:05), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 14/09/2026, 20:20:08. Read the methodology.