Crawley Town v Barnet
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Crawley Town win
- 31%
- Draw
- 24%
- Barnet win
- 44%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barnet to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barnet strength rating 1464 v Crawley Town 1413
- Barnet away record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Crawley Town home form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Barnet +5 v Crawley Town -5
- Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 35%, goals 47%, recent form 61%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 26 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model61%
Component disagreement: 26.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 14/09/2026, 18:20:05), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 14/09/2026, 20:20:08. Read the methodology.