FC Barcelona v Racing de Santander
18+La Liga · Wed 16 Sept, 19:30
Data: excellent
- FC Barcelona win
- 66%
- Draw
- 15%
- Racing de Santander win
- 18%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Barcelona to win
Model probability 66%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Barcelona strength rating 1681 v Racing de Santander 1620
- Superior goal difference: FC Barcelona +17 v Racing de Santander 0
- FC Barcelona unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 66% (Elo 57%, goals 75%, recent form 72%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model75%
- Recent-form model72%
Component disagreement: 18.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 66% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 66%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.