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Top picks

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The FootyGrounds Top Picks: up to five higher-confidence statistical match predictions each weekend and midweek, with probabilities, confidence scores, combined risk and full reasoning. Not betting advice.

All match predictions · Methodology · History & accuracy

These are the model's statistically strongest predictions. They are not safe bets — even individually strong predictions fail regularly, and combining five outcomes dramatically increases the overall risk.

This weekend's higher-confidence picks

Model generated from 21 modelled fixtures in the 18 Sept 2026 – 21 Sept 2026 window; 21 met the confidence and data-quality criteria. Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0, last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:06.

  1. 1. AZ Alkmaar to win

    AZ Alkmaar v Telstar · Eredivisie · Sun 20 Sept, 12:30

    64%

    Model probability

    Data: excellentConfidence: Low–Moderate
    FootyGrounds confidence score61 / 100 · Low–Moderate
    Why the model selected this match
    • AZ Alkmaar strength rating 1669 v Telstar 1595
    • AZ Alkmaar home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
    • Telstar away form: 1W 1D 1L, 2 scored / 2 conceded
    • Superior goal difference: AZ Alkmaar +11 v Telstar -6
    • AZ Alkmaar unbeaten in their last 5 matches
    • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 64% (Elo 59%, goals 70%, recent form 62%)

    Model components

    • Elo strength model59%
    • Goals model70%
    • Recent-form model62%

    Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Telstar have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

    Full match analysis

  2. 2. Grimsby Town to win

    Grimsby Town v Crawley Town · EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

    56%

    Model probability

    Data: excellentConfidence: Low–Moderate
    FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
    Why the model selected this match
    • Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Crawley Town 1413
    • Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
    • Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
    • Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Crawley Town -5
    • Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
    • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 59%)

    Model components

    • Elo strength model54%
    • Goals model59%
    • Recent-form model59%

    Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

    Full match analysis

  3. 3. Coleraine to win

    Coleraine v Limavady United · NIFL Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 17:00

    63%

    Model probability

    Data: excellentConfidence: Low–Moderate
    FootyGrounds confidence score60 / 100 · Low–Moderate
    Why the model selected this match
    • Coleraine strength rating 1675 v Limavady United 1599
    • Coleraine home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
    • Superior goal difference: Coleraine +12 v Limavady United -4
    • Coleraine unbeaten in their last 5 matches
    • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 63% (Elo 60%, goals 71%, recent form 59%)

    Model components

    • Elo strength model60%
    • Goals model71%
    • Recent-form model59%

    Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

    Full match analysis

  4. 4. Leeds United to win

    Leeds United v Crystal Palace · Premier League · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

    60%

    Model probability

    Data: excellentConfidence: Low–Moderate
    FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
    Why the model selected this match
    • Leeds United strength rating 1637 v Crystal Palace 1589
    • Crystal Palace away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
    • Superior goal difference: Leeds United +4 v Crystal Palace -5
    • Leeds United unbeaten in their last 4 matches
    • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 55%, goals 64%, recent form 64%)

    Model components

    • Elo strength model55%
    • Goals model64%
    • Recent-form model64%

    Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

    Full match analysis

  5. 5. Stenhousemuir to win

    Stenhousemuir v Arbroath · Scottish Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

    60%

    Model probability

    Data: excellentConfidence: Low–Moderate
    FootyGrounds confidence score58 / 100 · Low–Moderate
    Why the model selected this match
    • Stenhousemuir strength rating 1598 v Arbroath 1553
    • Stenhousemuir home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
    • Arbroath away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
    • Superior goal difference: Stenhousemuir +8 v Arbroath -4
    • Stenhousemuir unbeaten in their last 5 matches
    • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 65%, recent form 62%)

    Model components

    • Elo strength model54%
    • Goals model65%
    • Recent-form model62%

    Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Arbroath are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

    Full match analysis

Chance of all 5 winning

8.2%

Chance of at least one selection failing

91.8%

Individual probabilities: 64%, 56%, 63%, 60%, 60%. Even when individual selections have relatively high model probabilities, combining 5 outcomes makes an accumulator substantially less likely to succeed.

The combined figure multiplies the individual probabilities together, a simplified independence assumption. Real matches are not perfectly independent, so treat it as an approximation rather than an exact number.

View full prediction history · Methodology