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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

East Fife v Montrose

Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
East Fife win
45%
Draw
26%
Montrose win
30%

FootyGrounds prediction

East Fife to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • East Fife strength rating 1503 v Montrose 1504
  • East Fife home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
  • Montrose away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: East Fife +1 v Montrose -1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 47%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Montrose are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Cove Rangers v Ross County

Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
Cove Rangers win
27%
Draw
25%
Ross County win
48%

FootyGrounds prediction

Ross County to win

Model probability 48% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Ross County strength rating 1546 v Cove Rangers 1484
  • Ross County away record this season: 2W 1D 0L
  • Cove Rangers home form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 1 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Ross County +16 v Cove Rangers -4
  • Ross County unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 37%, goals 61%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. Cove Rangers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Alloa Athletic v East Kilbride

Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
Alloa Athletic win
50%
Draw
23%
East Kilbride win
27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Alloa Athletic to win

Model probability 50% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Alloa Athletic strength rating 1509 v East Kilbride 1499
  • Alloa Athletic home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
  • East Kilbride away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Alloa Athletic +3 v East Kilbride +1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Peterhead v Airdrieonians

Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
Peterhead win
46%
Draw
25%
Airdrieonians win
29%

FootyGrounds prediction

Peterhead to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Peterhead strength rating 1472 v Airdrieonians 1479
  • Peterhead home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
  • Airdrieonians away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 41%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South

Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
Hamilton Academical win
73%
Draw
13%
Queen of the South win
14%

FootyGrounds prediction

Hamilton Academical to win

Model probability 73% · predicted score 3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Hamilton Academical strength rating 1545 v Queen of the South 1458
  • Hamilton Academical home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
  • Queen of the South away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 15 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Hamilton Academical +12 v Queen of the South -15
  • Hamilton Academical unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 73% (Elo 61%, goals 85%, recent form 80%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
East Fife v East Kilbride

Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00

Data: excellent
East Fife win
48%
Draw
23%
East Kilbride win
29%

FootyGrounds prediction

East Fife to win

Model probability 48% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • East Fife strength rating 1503 v East Kilbride 1499
  • East Fife home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
  • East Kilbride away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 44%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Ross County v Alloa Athletic

Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00

Data: excellent
Ross County win
58%
Draw
20%
Alloa Athletic win
22%

FootyGrounds prediction

Ross County to win

Model probability 58% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score57 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Ross County strength rating 1546 v Alloa Athletic 1509
  • Ross County home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
  • Alloa Athletic away form: 1W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 3 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Ross County +16 v Alloa Athletic +3
  • Ross County unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 53%, goals 61%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: Alloa Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Alloa Athletic have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Airdrieonians v Montrose

Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00

Data: excellent
Airdrieonians win
37%
Draw
26%
Montrose win
36%

FootyGrounds prediction

Airdrieonians to win

Model probability 37% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Airdrieonians strength rating 1479 v Montrose 1504
  • Airdrieonians home record this season: 1W 2D 1L
  • Montrose away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 41%, goals 35%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Montrose are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Queen of the South v Cove Rangers

Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00

Data: excellent
Queen of the South win
41%
Draw
24%
Cove Rangers win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Queen of the South to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score27 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Queen of the South strength rating 1458 v Cove Rangers 1484
  • Queen of the South home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
  • Cove Rangers away form: 0W 0D 4L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 41%, goals 30%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 31 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Hamilton Academical v Peterhead

Scottish League One · Sat 3 Oct, 16:30

Data: excellent
Hamilton Academical win
65%
Draw
17%
Peterhead win
18%

FootyGrounds prediction

Hamilton Academical to win

Model probability 65% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Hamilton Academical strength rating 1545 v Peterhead 1472
  • Hamilton Academical home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
  • Peterhead away form: 1W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Hamilton Academical +12 v Peterhead -7
  • Hamilton Academical unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 59%, goals 74%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis