Match predictor

• Haverfordwest County strength rating 1586 v Holywell Town 1540
• Haverfordwest County home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
• Holywell Town away form: 0W 0D 4L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Haverfordwest County -8 v Holywell Town -23
• Holywell Town played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 55%, goals 59%, recent form 79%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Airbus UK strength rating 1613 v Flint Town United 1573
• Airbus UK home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Flint Town United away form: 0W 1D 4L, 3 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Airbus UK -1 v Flint Town United -13
• Flint Town United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 62%, recent form 71%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Caernarfon Town strength rating 1667 v Cambrian United 1641
• Caernarfon Town home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Cambrian United away form: 2W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Caernarfon Town +14 v Cambrian United +5
• Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Cambrian United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 51%, goals 57%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Cambrian United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Connah's Quay Nomads strength rating 1666 v Cardiff Metropolitan University 1648
• Connah's Quay Nomads home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
• Cardiff Metropolitan University away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Connah's Quay Nomads +15 v Cardiff Metropolitan University +9
• Connah's Quay Nomads have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Cardiff Metropolitan University are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Cardiff Metropolitan University have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Barry Town United 1672
• Colwyn Bay home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
• Barry Town United away form: 3W 0D 1L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
• Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
• Barry Town United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 39%, goals 37%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Barry Town United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Penybont strength rating 1660 v Ammanford 1558
• Penybont away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Ammanford home form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 14 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Penybont +8 v Ammanford -17
• Penybont unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Ammanford played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 45%, goals 61%, recent form 69%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Briton Ferry Llansawel strength rating 1580 v Trefelin 1548
• Briton Ferry Llansawel home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Trefelin away form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Briton Ferry Llansawel -10 v Trefelin -20
• Trefelin played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 52%, goals 58%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Llandudno 1636
• The New Saints home record this season: 5W 0D 0L
• Llandudno away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Llandudno +5
• The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 56%, goals 67%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Flint Town United strength rating 1573 v Ammanford 1558
• Flint Town United home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
• Ammanford away form: 0W 2D 3L, 4 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Flint Town United -13 v Ammanford -17
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Trefelin 1548
• The New Saints away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Trefelin home form: 0W 1D 4L, 1 scored / 12 conceded
• Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Trefelin -20
• The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 66% (Elo 53%, goals 79%, recent form 72%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barry Town United strength rating 1672 v Connah's Quay Nomads 1666
• Barry Town United home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
• Connah's Quay Nomads away form: 3W 0D 1L, 8 scored / 4 conceded
• Barry Town United have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 47%, goals 41%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: Connah's Quay Nomads are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Haverfordwest County 1586
• Colwyn Bay home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
• Haverfordwest County away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Colwyn Bay +3 v Haverfordwest County -8
• Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 56%, goals 60%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Haverfordwest County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cardiff Metropolitan University strength rating 1648 v Caernarfon Town 1667
• Cardiff Metropolitan University home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
• Caernarfon Town away form: 4W 1D 0L, 15 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 42%, recent form 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Caernarfon Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Holywell Town strength rating 1540 v Briton Ferry Llansawel 1580
• Holywell Town home record this season: 0W 1D 4L
• Briton Ferry Llansawel away form: 1W 1D 4L, 5 scored / 11 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 38%, goals 37%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cambrian United strength rating 1641 v Llandudno 1636
• Cambrian United home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
• Llandudno away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 47%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Penybont strength rating 1660 v Airbus UK 1613
• Penybont home record this season: 3W 2D 0L
• Airbus UK away form: 2W 0D 3L, 5 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Penybont +8 v Airbus UK -1
• Penybont unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 55%, goals 57%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cardiff Metropolitan University strength rating 1648 v Haverfordwest County 1586
• Cardiff Metropolitan University home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
• Haverfordwest County away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Cardiff Metropolitan University +9 v Haverfordwest County -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 57%, goals 69%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Haverfordwest County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Caernarfon Town strength rating 1667 v Barry Town United 1672
• Caernarfon Town home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Barry Town United away form: 3W 0D 1L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Caernarfon Town +14 v Barry Town United +12
• Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 51%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Barry Town United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Airbus UK strength rating 1613 v Trefelin 1548
• Airbus UK home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Trefelin away form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Airbus UK -1 v Trefelin -20
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 58%, goals 70%, recent form 70%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Ammanford strength rating 1558 v Holywell Town 1540
• Ammanford home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
• Holywell Town away form: 0W 0D 4L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Ammanford -17 v Holywell Town -23
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 50%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Briton Ferry Llansawel 1580
• Colwyn Bay away record this season: 1W 1D 3L
• Briton Ferry Llansawel home form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Colwyn Bay +3 v Briton Ferry Llansawel -10
• Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 36%, goals 47%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Haverfordwest County strength rating 1586 v Flint Town United 1573
• Haverfordwest County home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
• Flint Town United away form: 0W 1D 4L, 3 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Haverfordwest County -8 v Flint Town United -13
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 49%, goals 49%, recent form 71%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Llandudno strength rating 1636 v Cardiff Metropolitan University 1648
• Llandudno home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
• Cardiff Metropolitan University away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 2 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: Cardiff Metropolitan University are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Cardiff Metropolitan University have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Cambrian United 1641
• The New Saints home record this season: 5W 0D 0L
• Cambrian United away form: 2W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Cambrian United +5
• The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 56%, goals 66%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Cambrian United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Connah's Quay Nomads strength rating 1666 v Penybont 1660
• Connah's Quay Nomads home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
• Penybont away form: 3W 1D 0L, 8 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Connah's Quay Nomads +15 v Penybont +8
• Connah's Quay Nomads have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 52%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Penybont are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Penybont have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.